For want of the shoe, the horse was lost;
For want of the horse, the rider was lost;
For want of the rider, the battle was lost;
For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost;
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail
T.S. Eliot (1888–1965). Prufrock and Other Observations. 1917. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1. The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Transformation of Hamas |
Hamas is a viable social movement with an extensive social network and a large popular base. It derives its legitimacy from the Palestinian people. It is also a rational actor that has moved closer to a vision of peace consistent with international law and consensus. Hamas’ political evolution and deepening moderation stand in stark contrast to the rejectionism of the Netanyahu government and call into question which parties are ’hardline’ and which are ’extremist’, notes Fawaz A. Gerges.
Damascus (Syria) Countries Palestine/Israel Themes CentCom: Control of the "Great Middle East" | Khaled Meshal, head of Hamas’ political bureau. Something is stirring within the Hamas body politic, a moderating trend that, if nourished and engaged, could transform Palestinian politics and the Arab-Israeli peace process. There are unmistakable signs that the religiously-based radical movement has subtly changed its uncompromising posture on Israel. Although low-key and restrained, those shifts indicate that the movement is searching for a formula that addresses the concerns of Western powers yet avoids alienating its social base. Far from impulsive and unexpected, Hamas’ shift reflects a gradual evolution occurring over the past five years. The big strategic turn occurred in 2005, when Hamas decided to participate in the January 2006 legislative elections and thus tacitly accepted the governing rules of the Palestinian Authority (PA), one of which includes recognition of Israel. Ever since, top Hamas leaders have repeatedly declared they will accept a resolution of the conflict along the 1967 borders. The Damascus-based Khaled Meshal, head of Hamas’ political bureau and considered a hardliner, acknowledged as much in 2008. "We are realists," he said, who recognize that there is "an entity called Israel." Pressed by an Australian journalist on policy changes Hamas might make, Meshal asserted that the organization has shifted on several key points: "Hamas has already changed — we accepted the national accords for a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, and we took part in the 2006 Palestinian elections." Another senior Hamas leader, Ghazi Hamad, was more specific than Meshal, telling journalists in January 2009 that Hamas would be satisfied with ending Israeli control over the Palestinian areas occupied in the 1967 war — the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. In other words, Hamas would not hold out for liberation of the land that currently includes Israel. Previously Hamas moderates had called at times for a tahdia (a minor truce, or "calm") or hudna (a longer-term truce, lasting as long as fifty years), which implies some measure of recognition, if only tacit. The moderates justified their policy shift by using Islamic terms (in Islamic history hudnas sometimes develop into permanent truces). Now leaders appear to be going further; they have made a concerted effort to re-educate the rank and file about the necessity of living side by side with their Jewish neighbors, and in so doing mentally prepare them for a permanent settlement. In Gaza’s mosques pro-Hamas clerics have begun to cite the example of the famed twelfth-century Muslim military commander and statesman Saladin, who after liberating Jerusalem from the Crusaders allowed them to retain a coastal state in the Levant. The point is that if Saladin could tolerate the warring, bloodthirsty Crusaders, then today’s Palestinians should be willing to live peacefully with a Jewish state in their midst. The Saladin story is important because it provides Hamas with religious legitimacy and allows it to justify the change of direction to followers. Hamas’ raison d’être rests on religious legitimation; its leaders understand that they neglect this at their peril. Western leaders and students of international politics should acknowledge that Hamas can no more abandon its commitment to Islamism than the United States can abandon its commitment to liberal democracy. That does not mean Hamas is incapable of change or compromise but simply that its political identity is strongly constituted by its religious legitimation. It should be emphasized as well that Hamas is not monolithic on the issue of peace. There are multiple, clashing viewpoints and constituencies within the movement. Over the years I have interviewed more than a dozen leaders inside and outside the occupied territories. Although on the whole Hamas’ public rhetoric calls for the liberation of all of historic Palestine, not only the territories occupied in 1967, a healthy debate has grown both within and without. Several factors have played a role in the transformation. They include the burden of governing a war-torn Gaza, the devastation from Israel’s 2008-09 attack that caused incalculable human suffering, and increasing public dissatisfaction in Gaza with Hamas rule. Before the 2006 parliamentary elections, Hamas was known for its suicide bombers, not its bureaucrats, even though between 2002 and 2006 the organization moved from rejectionism toward participation in a political framework that is a direct product of the Oslo peace process of the 1990s. After the elections, the shift continued. "It is much more difficult to run a government than to oppose and resist Israeli occupation," a senior Hamas leader told me while on official business in Egypt in 2007. "If we do not provide the goods to our people, they’ll disown us." Hamas is not just a political party. It’s a social movement, and as such it has a long record of concern about and close attention to public opinion. Given the gravity of deteriorating conditions in Gaza and Hamas’ weak performance during last year’s fighting, it should be no surprise that the organization has undergone a period of fairly intense soul-searching and reassessment of strategic options. Ironically, despite the West’s refusal to regard the Hamas government as legitimate and despite the continuing brutal siege of Gaza, demands for democratic governance within Gaza are driving change. Yet Hamas leaders are fully aware of the danger of alienating more-hardline factions if they show weakness or water down their position and move toward de facto recognition of Israel without getting something substantive in return. Hamas’ strategic predicament lies in striking a balance between, on the one hand, a new moderating and maturing sensibility and, on the other, insistence on the right and imperative of armed resistance. This difficult balance often explains the tensions and contradictions in Hamas’ public and private pronouncements. What is striking about Hamas’ shift toward the peace process is that it has come at a time of critical challenges from Al Qaeda-like jihadist groups; a low-intensity civil war with rival Fatah, the ruling party of the PA; and a deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza. Last summer a militant group called Jund Ansar Allah [1], or the Warriors of God, one of a handful of Al Qaeda-inspired factions, declared the establishment of an Islamic emirate in Gaza — a flagrant rejection of Hamas’ authority. Hamas security forces struck instantly and mercilessly at the Warriors, killing more than twenty members, including the group’s leader, Abdel-Latif Moussa. In one stroke, the Hamas leadership sent a message to foes and friends alike that it will not tolerate global jihadist groups like Al Qaeda, which want to turn Gaza into a theater of transnational jihad. Despite the crushing of Moussa’s outfit, the extremist challenge persists. The Israeli siege, in place since 2006, along with the suffering and despair it has caused among Gaza’s 1.4 million inhabitants, has driven hundreds of young Palestinians into the arms of small Salafist extremist factions [2] that accuse Hamas of forfeiting the armed struggle and failing to implement Shariah law. Hamas leaders appear to be worried about the proliferation of these factions and have instructed clerics to warn worshipers against joining such bands. Compared with these puritanical and nihilistic groups, Hamas is well within the mainstream of Islamist politics. Operationally and ideologically, there are huge differences between Hamas and jihadi extremists such as Al Qaeda — and there’s a lot of bad blood. Hamas is a broad-based religious/nationalist resistance whose focus and violence is limited to Palestine/Israel, while Al Qaeda is a small, transnational terrorist network that has carried out attacks worldwide [3]. Al Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have vehemently criticized Hamas for its willingness to play politics and negotiate with Israel. Hamas leaders have responded that they know what is good for their people, and they have made it crystal clear they have no interest in transnational militancy. Their overriding goal is political and nationalist rather than ideological and global: to empower Palestinians and liberate the occupied Palestinian territories. Unlike Al Qaeda and other fringe factions, Hamas is a viable social movement with an extensive social network and a large popular base that has been estimated at several hundred thousand. Given its tradition of sensitivity and responsiveness to Palestinian public opinion, a convincing argument could be made that the recent changes in the organization’s conduct can be attributed to the high levels of poverty, unemployment and isolation of Palestinians in Gaza, who fear an even greater deterioration of conditions there. A further example of Hamas’ political and social priorities is its decision to agree in principle to an Egyptian-brokered deal that sketches out a path to peace with Fatah. After two years of bitter and violent division, the warring parties came very close to agreement in October. The deal collapsed at the last moment, but talks continue. There are two points to make about the Egyptian role: First, Hamas leaders say they feel somewhat betrayed by the Egyptians because after pressure from the Americans, Cairo unilaterally revised the final agreed-upon text without consulting the Hamas negotiating team. Second, many Palestinian and Arab observers think Egypt is in no hurry to conclude the Fatah-Hamas talks. They contend that faced with regional challenges and rivals (Iran, Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia), the Mubarak regime views its brokering process in the Palestinian-Israeli theater as an important regional asset and a way to solidify its relationship with Washington. Despite its frequently reactionary rhetoric, Hamas is a rational actor, a conclusion reached by former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy, who also served as Ariel Sharon’s national security adviser and who is certainly not a peacenik. The Hamas leadership has undergone a transformation "right under our very noses" by recognizing that "its ideological goal is not attainable and will not be in the foreseeable future," Halevy wrote in the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot just before the 2008 attack on Gaza. He believes Hamas is ready and willing to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. The US Army Strategic Studies Institute [4] published a similar analysis just before the Israeli offensive, concluding that Hamas was considering a shift of its position and that "Israel’s stance toward [Hamas]...has been a major obstacle to substantive peacemaking." Indeed, it could be argued that Hamas has moved closer to a vision of peace consistent with international law and consensus (two separate states in historic Palestine, divided more or less along the ’67 borders with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, and recognition of all states in the region) than the current Israeli governing coalition. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vehemently opposes the establishment of a genuinely viable Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, and is opposed to giving up any part of Jerusalem — and Netanyahu’s governing coalition is more right wing and pro-settlement than he is. Hamas’ political evolution and deepening moderation stand in stark contrast to the rejectionism of the Netanyahu government and call into question which parties are "hardline" and which are "extremist." And at the regional level, a sea change has occurred in the official Arab position toward the Jewish state (the Arab League’s 2002 Beirut Declaration, subsequently reiterated, offers full recognition and diplomatic relations if Israel accepts the international consensus regarding a two-state solution) [5], while the attitudes of the Israeli ruling elite have hardened. This marks a transformation of regional politics and a reversal of roles. Observers might ask, if Hamas is so eager to accept a two-state solution, why doesn’t it simply accept the three conditions for engagement required by the so-called diplomatic Quartet (the United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations): recognition of Israel, renunciation of violence and acceptance of all previous agreements (primarily, the Oslo Accords)? In my interviews with Hamas officials, they stress that while they have made significant concessions to the Quartet, it has not lifted the punishing sanctions against Hamas, nor has it pressed Israel to end its siege, which has caused a dire humanitarian crisis. In addition, Hamas leaders believe that recognition of Israel is the last card in their hand and are reluctant to play it before talks even begin. Their diplomatic starting point will be to demand that Israel recognize the national rights of the Palestinians and withdraw from the occupied territories — but it will not be their final position. There can be no viable, lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians if Hamas is not consulted and if the Palestinians remain divided, with two warring authorities in the West Bank and Gaza. Hamas has the means and public support to undermine any agreement that does not address the legitimate rights and claims of the Palestinian people. Its Fatah/PA rival lacks a popular mandate and the legitimacy needed to implement a resolution of the conflict. PA President Mahmoud Abbas has been weakened by a series of blunders of his own making, and with his moral authority compromised in the eyes of a sizable Palestinian constituency, Abbas is yesterday’s man — no matter how long he remains in power as a lame duck, and whether or not he competes in the upcoming presidential elections. If the United States and Europe engaged Hamas, encouraging it to continue moderating its views instead of ignoring it or, worse yet, seeking its overthrow, the West could test the extent of Hamas’ evolution. So far the strategy of isolation and military confrontation — pursued in tandem by Israel and the United States — has not appeared to weaken Hamas significantly. If anything, it has radicalized hundreds of young Palestinians, who have joined extremist factions and reinforced the culture of martyrdom and nihilism. All the while, the siege of Gaza has left a trail of untold pain and suffering. If the Western powers don’t engage Hamas, they will never know if it can evolve into an open, tolerant and peaceful social movement. The jury is still out on whether the Islamist movement can make that painful and ideologically costly transition. But the claim that engaging Hamas legitimizes it does not carry much weight; the organization derives its legitimacy from the Palestinian people, a mandate resoundingly confirmed in the free and fair elections of 2006. To break the impasse and prevent gains by more extremist factions, the Obama administration and Congress should support a unified Palestinian government that could negotiate peace with Israel. Whatever they think of its ideology, US officials should acknowledge that Hamas is a legitimately elected representative of the Palestinian people, and that any treaty signed by a rump Fatah/PA will not withstand the test of time. And instead of twisting Cairo’s arms in a rejectionist direction, Washington should encourage its Egyptian ally to broker a truce between Hamas and Fatah and thus repair the badly frayed Palestinian governing institutions. If the Obama administration continues to shun engagement with Hamas, Europe ought to take the lead in establishing an official connection. European governments have already dealt with Lebanon’s Hizbullah, a group similar to Hamas in some respects, and they possess the skills, experience and political weight to help broker a viable peace settlement. Like it or not, Hamas is the most powerful organization in the occupied territories. It is deeply entrenched in Palestinian society. Neither Israel nor the Western powers can wish it away. The good news, if my reading is correct, is that Hamas has changed, is willing to meet some of the Quartet’s conditions and is making domestic political preparations for further changes. But if Hamas is not engaged, and if the siege of Gaza and Palestinian suffering continue without hope of ending the political impasse, there is a real danger of a regional war. Attached documents
[1] Did Israel Back Recent ‘Challenge’ to Hamas in the Gaza Strip?,Voltaire Network, 16 August 2009. [2] Israel involved in several attacks in Iraq, Voltaire Network, 20 July 2005. [3] Our terrorists, by Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed, Voltaire Network, 15 November 2009. [4] See attached document: HAMAS and Israel: Conflicting Strategies of Group-Based Politics, Strategic Studies Institute United States Army War College, December 23, 2008. [5] The Beirut Declaration, Voltaire Network, March 28, 2002. |
by Curt Monash
reprinted from NWFusion, October, 1995
The late Robert Heinlein is widely credited with having inspired at least one whole generation of engineers, as well as a number of authors. Close inspection of his work also reveals a sophisticated guide to marketing. Indeed, a number of his heroes (cf. The Man Who Sold the Moon) were visionaries, charlatans, and hucksters of the first water.
In this column, I focus on Heinlein's most famous collections of aphorisms: The Notebooks of Lazarus Long, contained in his monumental (in the most literal sense of the word) novel Time Enough For Love. Below are some quotations from the notebooks, and my only partly tongue-in-cheek interpretation of how they might shed light on the development, marketing, selling, and buying of computer products.
"A generation which ignores history has no past - and no future."
I continue to be amazed by the way proponents of new technologies blithely forget the lessons of prior eras (i.e., anything from ten or twenty years in the past, to the actual mainstream of the present). When any of the new Internet-specific application development tools match the important features of PowerBuilder, I may begin to be impressed. Of course, I've also been waiting years for PowerBuilder to match the important features of character-based 4GLs.
"To stay young requires unceasing cultivation of the ability to unlearn old falsehoods."
While most new companies forget the lessons of the past, most established companies miss new trends. Until Powersoft and its competitors have demonstrated useful HTML generators, CGI generators, and page link management, I'll continue to wonder whether they ever will. I also don't understand why the major word processors' HTML extenders aren't already vastly more functional.
Indeed, almost no company has been successful in multiple generations of application development tool technology. And every major category of personal productivity tool has seen at least two consecutive incumbents bite the dust. So, to summarize the previous two points:
"You live and learn. Or you don't live long."
If you weren't making your living off of technology, you wouldn't be reading this column. So you are in a rapidly changing world. Companies that don't learn much don't survive. People who don't learn much do survive, but their standard of living keeps going down.
"Never underestimate the power of human stupidity."
"The truth of a proposition has nothing to do with its credibility. And vice versa."
"Delusions are often functional. A mother's opinions about her children's beauty, intelligence, goodness, et cetera ad nauseam, keep her from drowning them at birth"
The best salespeople are true believers. Quite irrespective of the merits of their offerings, they REALLY BELIEVE. Judge their arguments on merit, not on the energy or apparent sincerity of their presentation.
Consider, if you please, a joke popular among industry executives:
"Get a shot off FAST. This upsets him long enough to let you make your second shot perfect."
This is a maxim many marketers live by. Preannounce; look like a leader; worry about delivering later. If you're lucky, everybody else will get all caught up in responding to your promises, and lose focus on their own agendas.
Indeed, in a far-sighted decision, the town fathers of Redmond, Washington passed an ordinance mandating this strategy for any company headquartered within its borders. Maybe that's way the local dry cleaners have collection boxes for the Newt Gingrich Presidential Library...
"This sad little lizard told me that he was a brontosaurus on his mother's side. I did not laugh; people who boast of ancestry often have little else to sustain them."
Small products from big companies can be just as pitiful as products from small companies. Don't assume products from Microsoft, IBM, Novell, Oracle et al. are necessarily safe choices, guaranteed success due to the backing of a large corporate parent - unless you like your omelets delivered directly to your face.
"Cheops' Law: Nothing EVER gets built on schedule or within budget."
You knew that. But did you know it applied to software vendors as well as to your own organization? Of course you did.
"When the need arises - and it does - you must be able to shoot your own dog."
Mistakes happen. Sometimes you have to cut your losses. The same goes for computer vendors. That's why there are so many orphaned products.
"Avoid making irrevocable decisions while tired or hungry. N.B.: Circumstances can force your hand. So think ahead!"
It's good to take tough, hard decisions, even if they're painful. It's even better to plan ahead and avoid the necessity for tough, hard, painful decisions. Nobody can design a perfect technical architecture three or five years in advance. But if you run into a brick wall in 18 months - that IS your fault.
Many a vendor will lead you into that brick wall. Their executives are measured on annual revenue and profit figures, excepting only those who're measured quarter by quarter. The future will just have to take care of itself.
By the way, you might wonder who's responsible for the short-term outlook. Obviously, it's the investors. But who are investors? They are professional money managers, hired either by companies, or by mutual fund investors. And whose money are they managing? Typically, they're managing pension funds - i.e., workers' money. Who's most hurt by short-termitis (especially the downsizing variety)? Workers, of course. Something is malodorous here, but a full analysis is far beyond the scope of this column...
"A committee is a life form with six or more legs and no brain."
Almost all important buying decisions are made by committee. No wonder they turn out so badly.
And finally:
"Certainly the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you; if you don't bet, you can't win."
There never has been a great application development tool. But third-generation languages, from COBOL to C++, are vastly worse. Similarly, the instability of open systems is no excuse for staying on the mainframe. You have to pick something, and get on with it.
If you use risky technology, you may possibly fail. If you don't use risky technology, you will certainly fail.
To reach Monash Information Services in Acton, MA directly, please call 978-266-1815. You can also send e-mail to: curtmonash@monash.com
Prof. Paul Eidelberg
Defense Minister Ehud Barack is quoted as having told students: “One of the foundations of a democratic state is a monopoly on the use of force on the one hand; on the other is the state's authority over the citizens.”
This definition of a democratic state is perfectly consistent with the definition of a fascist state.
That Barack went on to say: “The citizens express their stances through political activity and the ballot box” does not nullify his fascist orientation because there are many fascist states that have ballot boxes—such as Egypt, Iran, and Russia.
Moreover, the fact that Members of the Knesset in Israel are not individually accountable to the voters on constituency election indicates that Israel, in a most decisive respect, is semi-fascist.
Thus, in Israel’s January 2003 election, at least 70 percent of the voters cast ballots against Labor’s policy of “unilateral disengagement,” a policy also opposed by the Likud party. Yet that became the policy of the Likud government.
By the way, Barack’s definition of a democratic state precludes civil disobedience, such as that of Martin Luther King.
For a comprehensive assessment of the flaws in Israel’s political system, see my book The Myth of Israeli Democracy: Toward a Truly Jewish Israel (Davidson Press, 2006). This book discusses different types of democracy and prescribes the basic institution of a Jewish democracy. In a more recent book, Toward a Renaissance of Israel: The Political Theology of Rabbi Eliyahu Benamozegh (Lightcatcher Books, 2008), I show that the Torah system of government, properly understood, is far more democratic than Israel’s present system of government, and infinitely more just and rational.
From: Dr. Reuven Erlich Director The Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center | Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center |
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